Oscars 2021: The Race for Best Picture

By Sean Boelman and the disappointment media Staff

Last Updated: 2/25/2021
Note: Commentary does not include films not yet screened.

One of the safest bets right now seems to be Chloe Zhao’s road movie Nomadland (Searchlight). Gaining support in the directing, screenplay, and Best Actress categories, in addition to a slew of below-the-line plays, the film seems likely to pick up a lot of nominations, and likely even win a few trophies. However, it is possible that the Academy may go for something a little less subtle for its highest honor. Additionally, the push to Hulu means that it lost its position as one of the few major studio releases in contention.

Also a major player is Regina King’s feature directorial debut One Night in Miami (Amazon). The film picked up a lot of initial steam in the acting categories after its festival debut but seems to have lost most of it since, apart from supporting actor Leslie Odom Jr. and a long-shot nomination for Kingsley Ben-Adir. However, we can expect this to easily lock in a Best Picture nomination, in addition to directing and screenwriting nods (and possibly wins).

Netflix has a sure-fire nominee in David Fincher’s Mank, if only from goodwill for the director and the industry-centric nature of the film. That said, this seems like the type of film that will rack up a bunch of nominations but strike out with the exception of one or two minor wins. And since Netflix has such a robust awards slate this year, this is one of the tougher sells for the big win.

Other Netflix titles that seem pretty likely to get a nomination are The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Aaron Sorkin still has plenty enough goodwill for his newest film to get a nod, even if there are also other films about civil rights in play this year. As for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, love for the work of playwright August Wilson in addition to support for the late Chadwick Boseman’s performance make it a likely contender.

Perhaps the most unlikely frontrunner is Emerald Fennell’s darkly comedic thriller Promising Young Woman (Focus). At first glance, one wouldn’t expect this to make that much of a splash, but it is gaining a lot of support from the screenwriting and acting branches. It may not have enough buzz to win, but with the preferential ballot system, it should get the required mentions to get a nomination.

Those six films seem like the most likely to be in play for the big honor. However, with the way the category is set up, there could be anywhere from five to ten nominees. In this unorthodox year, it’s possible that there is a diverse enough crop of films to get a full slate, but it seems more likely that there will only be eight or nine players. But what will get those last few spots?

There seems to be a lot of support for Spike Lee’s latest, Da 5 Bloods. Delroy Lindo is becoming quite the underdog in the Actor race. Yet with an early summer release date, and the fact that Netflix has a bunch of other releases that they seem to be pushing harder, it’s entirely possible that this one gets lost in the shuffle.

Warner Bros. has their strongest contender in Shaka King's Judas and the Black Messiah. Although the Academy is likely to go for one of the more palatable films about the Civil Rights to come out this year, this extremely unorthodox biopic is more than good enough to pick up a nomination. However, with the decision widely-maligned by the industry to release their films on HBO Max at the same time as theaters, it's not quite the lock that it should be.

The sole contender from Sony Pictures Classics, who has been one of the few studios supporting theaters during the pandemic, is Florian Zeller’s The Father. It’s all but guaranteed to get a nomination in Actor, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay, but will that be enough to push it towards the top of the pack?

Another studio with only one player is STX. Unfortunately for the political thriller The Mauritanian, though, STX is pretty new to the awards game. Last year, there seemed to be a campaign for Jennifer Lopez ramping up for Hustlers, but it lost steam at the last minute. The Mauritanian is good, maybe enough so to get that ninth or tenth spot, but that inexperience could let the film down.

Indie studio A24 has two contenders after sitting out most of the year, but both seem to be fighting for a tenth spot that probably won’t exist. Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari and Kelly Reichardt’s First Cow are both very good films that have gotten a lot of critical praise, but they seem to be too low-key to really connect with voters, especially when another quiet film (Nomadland) is getting more buzz.

Other possible contenders include Amazon’s Sound of Metal, which will pick up some technical and acting nods but doesn’t have the widespread support to get a spot, Universal’s News of the World, which is one of the few contenders from a major studio but is utterly forgettable, and Disney’s Soul, which has a lot of support but isn’t likely to get much attention outside of the Animated and Score categories.

Netflix also has two long shot contenders that could be in the running, but have a better chance in other categories. Sam Levinson's Malcolm & Marie seems like a contender in the acting categories and possibly Original Screenplay, but may not be able to squeeze in to the main race. Ramin Bahrani’s The White Tiger is pretty excellent and has a small chance of making it in should the right people connect with it. Its best shot is likely in Adapted Screenplay.

As for non-starters, Netflix has quite a few. Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy is not a very good film and will be fighting for a sole Best Supporting Actress nod for Glenn Close. The Dig is surprisingly good, but too slight to make much of a splash above-the-line. Pieces of a Woman may pick up nominations for Vanessa Kirby and Ellen Burstyn, but had its overall hopes quashed by controversy. And The Midnight Sky and The Prom are both entertaining, but don’t seem to have the praise that they’d need to make a showing.

Apple TV+ has three films that feel like awards bait, but will likely be ignored in this socially-conscious year. The best chance for Sofia Coppola’s On the Rocks is a Supporting Actor nod for Bill Murray, but even that seems unlikely as it is her worst film in years. The Justin Timberlake-starring Palmer is good, but little more than a sentimental crowd-pleaser. Still, it deserves to be in the conversation more than Hillbilly Elegy. The Russo Brothers' Cherry wants to be great, but it's ultimately very mediocre.

Hulu hoped to get their foot in the race when they picked up The United States vs. Billie Holiday from Paramount, but Lee Daniels's newest film (his first in eight years) is pretty messy. There's still a chance for the film to pick up a Best Acting and/or a Best Original Song nomination, but it's dead-on-arrival in the main competition.

NEON will almost certainly be completely absent from the Best Picture race this year after bringing Parasite to a win. Their only legitimate contender is Ammonite, a pretty but otherwise mediocre period piece that is unlikely to turn any heads. Palm Springs (co-distributed with Hulu) is fun, and might be a long-shot for Original Screenplay, but doesn’t seem like a serious player.

Of course, there are also films submitted for consideration that everyone knows won’t have a shot. Warner Bros. is mounting campaigns for Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984, but their chances are virtually nonexistent outside of some spare below-the-line nods. The Little Things (also WB) will be a dud above-the-line, but Thomas Newman's excellent score could make it in. Other films, like Lionsgate’s Antebellum and Fatale seem to be getting FYC campaigns out of contractual obligation.

Yes, it is shaping up to be one of the more predictable Best Picture races in recent memory. At this point, it’s starting to become relatively clear what will and won’t be in contention after all is said and done. After those last few wild cards end up screening, it should be easy to call where everything is going to land.

Sean Boelman's Picks

Locks:
1. One Night in Miami
2. Nomandland
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Likely:
4. Mank
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6. Promising Young Woman

Possible:
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. The Father
10. The Mauritanian
11. Minari
12. Sound of Metal
13. Malcolm & Marie
14. News of the World
15. First Cow

Camden Ferrell's Picks

Locks:
1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Likely:
4. One Night in Miami
5. Minari
6. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Possible:
7. Promising Young Woman
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. Soul
10. First Cow
11. Sound of Metal

Dan Skip Allen's Picks

Locks:
1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Promising Young Woman

Likely:
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6. Minari
7. The Father

Possible:
8. Soul
9. Pieces of a Woman
10. News of the World
11. Sound of Metal
12. First Cow
13. Mank