Final Winner Predictions for the 96th Oscars

By Sean Boelman

The Oscars are upon us, and speculation is running rampant as to what will take home the gold. This year, more so than usual, it feels like a majority of the awards have an obvious winner — most of them Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer.

Here is what we think will win each award, along with a breakdown of our reasoning:

Best Picture

This year might be the most predictable Best Picture race in Oscar history. The winner is Oppenheimer. It’s not even worth entertaining an upset at this point. Christopher Nolan’s biopic has been the clear favorite in all of the precursors and is on its way to absolutely dominating on Oscar night, including taking home the top prize.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Can Win: it’s unstoppable
Should Win: Maestro

Best Director

Best Director and Best Picture often (but not always) go together, so it should be no surprise that the Best Director race is just as clear-cut as the Best Picture race. Christopher Nolan will finally get his long-overdue statuette for his second director nomination.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Can Win: it’s unstoppable
Should Win: Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Best Actress

Best Actress is shaping to be one of the more exciting races this Oscar season. Heading into the fall, it seemed like Lily Gladstone’s performance in Killers of the Flower Moon was the clear favorite, but Emma Stone has been gaining a lot of steam for her turn in Poor Things. 

Many pundits have compared this race to the 2019 race, where the early frontrunner, Glenn Close, was defeated by late-breaking darling Olivia Colman (who earned many of the same precursors as Stone and, interestingly, was also the lead in a Lanthimos film).

Will Win: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Can Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Supporting Actor

We’re starting to sound like a broken record, but Oppenheimer also has Best Supporting Actor on lock. Robert Downey Jr. will take home his first Oscar for his performance as Lewis Strauss.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Can Win: it’s unstoppable
Should Win: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Best Supporting Actress

Finally, a lock that won’t go to Oppenheimer! Da’Vine Joy Randolph has taken home virtually every precursor award for her performance in The Holdovers. And who can blame awards voters? It was an incredible performance. This will maybe be one of the most deserved wins of the night.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Can Win: she’s got this in the bag
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Original Screenplay

The screenplay categories are shaping up to be unexpectedly contentious. The current frontrunner for Original Screenplay is probably the script for The Holdovers, a film quite well-received by awards voters — particularly older ones.

However, there is also a strong case to be made for Anatomy of a Fall. The French courtroom drama overperformed with nominations, and it has (as a pleasant surprise) won several precursors. It could easily upset in this category.

Will Win: The Holdovers
Can Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: May December

Adapted Screenplay

The Adapted Screenplay category is almost as contentious as the Original category, although this one has a more clear frontrunner. American Fiction has picked up a majority of the precursor awards in this category, so we’re currently forecasting that it will win. However, there’s also a lot of support in this category for Barbie and Oppenheimer. It’s American Fiction’s to lose — but it could lose it.

Will Win: American Fiction
Can Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Barbie

International Feature

The International Feature category probably would have been much more enjoyable had France submitted the Best Picture-nominated Anatomy of a Fall instead of The Taste of Things, but as it stands, The Zone of Interest is the only film in this category that is also nominated for Best Picture. Don’t expect an upset.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Can Win: it’s a lock
Should Win: The Teachers’ Lounge

Documentary Feature

Documentary Feature is another race that seems pretty locked down, with the Ukrainian documentary 20 Days in Mariupol seeming like the apparent winner. However, it might not be surprising if the Academy goes with the more crowd-pleasing Bobi Wine: The People’s President. To Kill a Tiger has also picked up some significant steam recently, but it feels like too late of a breaker to take home the prize.

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Can Win: Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Animated Feature

For a minute, The Boy and the Heron was picking up a few awards, and it seemed like it could be a legitimate competitor to Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. However, Spider-Verse currently holds all of the key precursors. Expect the franchise to go two-for-two in this category.

Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Can Win: The Boy and the Heron
Should Win: Robot Dreams

Cinematography

We’re back to Oppenheimer wins! Hoyte van Hoytema has a clear advantage to win for his work on Nolan’s film. If there is going to be an upset, it would be Rodrigo Prieto for Killers of the Flower Moon, but Oppenheimer's dominance seems much more likely at this point.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Can Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Oppenheimer

Editing

This is another below-the-line category that Oppenheimer seems destined to win! Like Cinematography, Oppy’s biggest competition is Killers of the Flower Moon, but this is another one that will likely go to the bomb biopic.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Can Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Oppenheimer

Production Design

For Production Design, it seems like a two-way race between Barbie and Poor Things. It could go either way, but we’re leaning more toward the colorful world of Barbieland.

Will Win: Barbie
Can Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Barbie

Costume Design

The Costume Design race also seems to be between Barbie and Poor Things. Again, we’re giving the edge to Barbie, but don’t be surprised if the period drama upsets. This branch does tend to award period pieces a lot.

Will Win: Barbie
Can Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Barbie

Makeup and Hair Styling

Makeup and Hair Styling will likely go to Maestro for its prosthetics work. However, there is also a chance that it goes to Poor Things for its impressive hair styling work. It’s a slight chance, but a chance nevertheless.

Will Win: Maestro
Can Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Poor Things

Visual Effects

Visual Effects is a race that could go any number of ways. Right now, we’re leaning towards the sci-fi film The Creator because it has the most “obvious” special effects. However, it could also feasibly go to Ridley Scott’s war movie Napoleon or the underdog — Godzilla Minus One. We’re rooting for the kaiju to upset here, but don’t think it will happen.

Will Win: The Creator
Can Win: Napoleon
Should Win: Godzilla Minus One

Sound

Continuing its below-the-line dominance, Best Sound is another award that Oppenheimer seems likely to take home on Oscar night. There is a very good chance that the Academy rewards the exquisite work in either Maestro or The Zone of Interest, but we expect them to go with another Oppy win.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Can Win: Maestro
Should Win: The Zone of Interest

Score

Speaking of Oppenheimer, it’s also almost guaranteed to take home Best Score. If something is going to upset, it would be John Williams’s work on Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny — the only other film in the nominees that was also nominated at the Grammys — but it’s Ludwig Göransson’s to lose.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Can Win: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Should Win: Poor Things

Original Song

Your Best Original Song winner is… Barbie! Which Barbie song is a different question. Industry awards have mostly been going to the Billie Eilish tune “What Was I Made For?” so that’s the favorite, but “I’m Just Ken” did take home a lot of critics’ awards, so it could upset.

Will Win: “What Was I Made For?,” Barbie
Can Win: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
Should Win: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie

Documentary Short

The Documentary Short category seems to be led right now by The ABCs of Book Banning, if only because it covers important subject matter. However, the presentation of the film is somewhat low-quality, so it could be the much better The Last Repair Shop.

Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Can Win: The Last Repair Shop
Should Win: The Last Repair Shop

Animated Short

The Animated Short race seems to be between Letter to a Pig and Ninety-Five Senses. Ninety-Five Senses is the better and more crowd-pleasing film, but Letter to a Pig feels more timely and complex. We’re going to give the edge to Letter to a Pig.

Will Win: Letter to a Pig
Can Win: Ninety-Five Senses
Should Win: Ninety-Five Senses

Live-Action Short

The Live-Action Short category also seems to be down to two major contenders. The first is the abortion drama Red, White and Blue, which could take home the award for its relevant subject matter. However, this could also go to Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, perhaps finally giving the beloved filmmaker his “overdue” Oscar.

Will Win: Red, White and Blue
Can Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Should Win: Invincible